Edgar Kausel

  Lunes, 11 de Abril de 2016

  11:00 - 12:00

   Santiago CESS, Concha y Toro 32C, Santiago

   Overconfidence in Personnel Selection Decisions: The Detrimental Effects of Unstructured Interview Information

ABSTRACT

We investigate overconfidence (i.e., the match between accuracy and confidence) in making predictions regarding applicants’ performance. We also examine predictions for participants presented with information about candidates based solely on standardized tests versus those who also were presented with unstructured interview information. We conducted two studies with individuals responsible for personnel selection decisions (Study 1, n = 132; Study 2, n = 70). Results show that individuals presented with unstructured interview information (along with standardized scores) exhibit more confidence but less accuracy than individuals presented with standardized test results only; these individuals show virtually no overconfidence. These results emphasize the importance of studying confidence levels in selection decisions. Furthermore, while previous research has shown that the predictive validity of unstructured interviews is low, this study provides compelling evidence that they can actually hurt personnel selection decisions in the presence of additional information.